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During the last cheap phentermine online, the Fed had cut rates by 150 basis points before the recession began and the easings, did not stop the economy from running its course. But how do we know if the U.S. has begun to fall into a recession? One very tried and true measurement that tells us if a recession has already started, is the unemployment rate. Once it rises at least 0.5ppt from the cheap phentermine online low, and it does not matter if that low is 2% or 7%, the economy has always slipped into recession. This acid test works 100% of the time. It is important to remember that it is not the level that matters but the change. (See Chart 1). We know that the jobless rate hit bottom in March at 4.4%; so basically, the U.S. is on the threshold now at 4.9%. Another time tested indicator of market peaks and loaming recessions is the shift in consumer spending from discretionaries to staples (Chart 2). Though this dance occurs regularly near the end of a each business cheap phentermine online, it is most important to note when in combination with record high oil prices (Chart 3). This drain on consumer spending caused by high energy costs plus the clear move toward defensive stocks has herald the crest in major equity markets 4 out of 5 times since 1960. Before there is any real concern, it pays to note that recessions are an important part of the business cheap phentermine online. There has been as many recessions as expansions, but they just happen to be much shorter in duration. They last, on average, about 11 months and tend to move the level of GDP down by 2%. Recessions are simply haircuts and not Armageddon. They are actually very necessary because they help to squeeze out the excesses from of the economy. Investment approach: The worst performing S&P sectors during a recession have been consumer discretionary and financials which decline, on average, by 30%. The best performing sectors historically were telecomm, health care and utilities; the classic defensives. More economic and financial market research is available in the December newsletter. Go to member login and follow the links. ... cheap phentermine online