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United States 7/12 Employment Situation Report (Nov) At face value, the October Employment Situation Report provided mixed messages. Non farm payrolls climbed by a larger than expected 166,000 (albeit from a downwardly revised September base), but unemployment rose for the sixth time in seven months whilst the Household Survey measure of cheapest cheap phentermine fell 225,000. However this needs to be set in the context of a huge 463,000 increase the previous month. But more fundamentally, the composition of the change in cheapest cheap phentermine in the Household Survey just simply isn’t consistent with recession. Importantly, the job losses in October were heavily concentrated in the public sector (down 218,000) and self cheapest cheap phentermine (down 347,000). By contrast, the number of private sector employee jobs leapt 165,000. At the same time, part time working, which in common with self cheapest cheap phentermine tends to rise when economic conditions are deteriorating (reflecting a shortage of higher paying, full time employee positions), tumbled 605,000, whilst full time working rose 225,000. The importance of the labour market as a barometer of conditions within the US economy cannot be overstated. However, it is important to understand the nuances of the various economic time series and their inter relatedness. In this regard, it is interesting that a number of economic commentators are predicting that non farm payrolls are about to decline in absolute terms over the coming few months. However, if this were to happen now it would run counter to the experience of the last forty years, which have seen non farm payrolls falling on a sustained basis only when initial claims for unemployment insurance (commonly known as jobless claims) are rising in excess of 400,000 a week. At the time of writing, initial jobless claims are currently trending along at 330,000 a week (Although they did spike above 350,000 last week), off their lows but still well below this critical threshold. Thus, whilst cheapest cheap phentermine growth is likely to slow over the coming months underlying economic growth has after all been sub trend in each of the last six quarters it should remain positive for some time. Eurozone 6/12 ECB Interest Rate Decision As expected, the ECB again kept official interest rates at 4.00% at the November meeting of the policy council. The central bank still believes the risks to inflation are to the upside, but it is now prepared to maintain its monetary stance for the time being in order to monitor the deflationary effects of the situation in the credit markets. Although the central bank indicated it would tighten policy again should circumstances dictate, for the second successive month during the present tightening cycle it didn’t describe monetary conditions as being “accommodating”. Consequently, the ECB is now in a holding pattern, with financial markets now assuming interest rates will remain at the current level throughout 2008. 7/12 German Industrial Production (Oct) After slowing abruptly in the second quarter, the German industrial sector has had an excellent third quarter. Overall industrial activity expanded 0.3% in September, following gains of 1.9% in August and 0.2% in July. As a result, industrial production in the third quarter as a whole increased by 2.1%, a marked acceleration on Q2’s modest 0.3%. With construction and the utilities more or less keeping pace with this, the key manufacturing sector also had a buoyant third quarter, with output up 2.1% compared with 0.4% in Q2. The consensus is looking for production to slip 0.4% in October. John Clarke Economic Adviser ... cheapest cheap phentermine